Learning Bitcoin’s Golden Language – Adoption cycles will persist post 2021

Bitcoin is in the process of monetisation whereby people adopt a digital, decentralised, global, censorship resistant store of value. Historically adoption cycles have centred on the halving, with an accumulation phase pre-halving, a parabolic phase post-halving and a bear-market thereafter (I wrote about this here). Preston Pysh and Stephan Livera explored the possibility that bitcoin … More Learning Bitcoin’s Golden Language – Adoption cycles will persist post 2021

Embracing Speculation: High-probability potential in a speculative world

Bitcoin’s detractors often refer to it as a speculative asset. This is partially true – an investment in bitcoin involves a speculation on an inherently uncertain future. But the connotation implied by ‘speculation’ is often unhelpful because it associates bitcoin with fly-by-nights who are merely trying to make a quick buck. In this article I … More Embracing Speculation: High-probability potential in a speculative world

Adoption Waves: FOMO remains Bitcoin’s #1 Marketing Strategy

Whilst bitcoin demand is variable, bitcoin supply is perfectly known and pre-determined. There will only be 21 million. The architectural design is very unlikely to change. It’s incredible how known supply meets variable demand and results in adoption waves, which centre around the halving*. In this article I detail these waves and explain the psychological … More Adoption Waves: FOMO remains Bitcoin’s #1 Marketing Strategy

Don’t “believe” in bitcoin; understand Store of Value, Stock-to-Flow and Network Effects

“Do you believe bitcoin?” “Do you believe in gold?” This line of questioning makes it sound like there is something mystical or religious about these store of value assets. Yes, people talk about gold and bitcoin with religious fervor, but gold is precious for a reason and the same logic is applicable to bitcoin. The … More Don’t “believe” in bitcoin; understand Store of Value, Stock-to-Flow and Network Effects

Sound Money Monthly: (ed. 5) Central banking is an environmental disaster

TLDR: Central banks positioning themselves as a solution to climate challenges is dangerous. They’ve promoted unsustainable debt fueled consumption for 50 years. Consumption is great but it needs to be based on production otherwise it’s unsustainable and bad for the environment. Micro level policy is futile while unsound money remains. Sound money is the environmentally … More Sound Money Monthly: (ed. 5) Central banking is an environmental disaster

Tech network disruption framework; bitcoin undervalued at $20K

MicroStrategy CEO Michael Saylor has given several wonderful interviews since allocating his $0.5bn Treasury balance sheet to bitcoin this year. Strong, concise and visual communication is a powerful combination. His background as a technology investor with experience of buying digital assets, combined with his concentrated power as CEO, positioned him to make the bold decision … More Tech network disruption framework; bitcoin undervalued at $20K

Bitcoin Bulletin: Shifting from accumulation towards aggressive appreciation phase

First point of business – I’d like to invite you to a digital bitcoin webinar on Wednesday 9 December (1700 GMT, 1900 South Africa (GMT+2), 1100 Pacific Standard Time. This is for bitcoin investors. It is less suitable beginners who don’t have any holdings. Goals: Prepare for the bitcoin bull market; understand past cycles, strategize … More Bitcoin Bulletin: Shifting from accumulation towards aggressive appreciation phase

Happy Thanksgiving – There’s so much to be thankful for!

Early on in our relationship my wife and I instituted a tradition; before we go to sleep, we say 5 things we’re grateful for. Sticking to this tradition is one of the best decisions of my life! Gratitude softens anger, overcomes self-concern and allows one to reflect on the beauty of everyday life. So, here … More Happy Thanksgiving – There’s so much to be thankful for!

Chris Cole on derivatives, volatility, market structure and regime change

Really enjoyed this Grant Williams podcast with Chris Cole. In fact, all Grant’s interviews in this series are worth listening to (more than once). There’s a lot of info I didn’t fully understand in this interview. Options and derivatives aren’t my strong point, but the interaction between these variables, volatility, monetary policy, macro and market … More Chris Cole on derivatives, volatility, market structure and regime change