Category: analysis

Embracing Speculation: High-probability potential in a speculative world

December 24, 2020

Bitcoin’s detractors often refer to it as a speculative asset. This is partially true – an investment in bitcoin involves a speculation on an inherently uncertain future. But the connotation implied by ‘speculation’ is often unhelpful because it associates bitcoin with fly-by-nights who are merely trying to make a quick buck. In this article I … More Embracing Speculation: High-probability potential in a speculative world

Learning Bitcoin’s Golden Language – Adoption cycles will persist post 2021

December 24, 2020

Bitcoin is in the process of monetisation whereby people adopt a digital, decentralised, global, censorship resistant store of value. Historically adoption cycles have centred on the halving, with an accumulation phase pre-halving, a parabolic phase post-halving and a bear-market thereafter (I wrote about this here). Preston Pysh and Stephan Livera explored the possibility that bitcoin … More Learning Bitcoin’s Golden Language – Adoption cycles will persist post 2021

Don’t “believe” in bitcoin; understand Store of Value, Stock-to-Flow and Network Effects

December 17, 2020

“Do you believe bitcoin?” “Do you believe in gold?” This line of questioning makes it sound like there is something mystical or religious about these store of value assets. Yes, people talk about gold and bitcoin with religious fervor, but gold is precious for a reason and the same logic is applicable to bitcoin. The … More Don’t “believe” in bitcoin; understand Store of Value, Stock-to-Flow and Network Effects

Tech network disruption framework; bitcoin undervalued at $20K

December 2, 2020

MicroStrategy CEO Michael Saylor has given several wonderful interviews since allocating his $0.5bn Treasury balance sheet to bitcoin this year. Strong, concise and visual communication is a powerful combination. His background as a technology investor with experience of buying digital assets, combined with his concentrated power as CEO, positioned him to make the bold decision … More Tech network disruption framework; bitcoin undervalued at $20K

Bitcoin Bulletin: Shifting from accumulation towards aggressive appreciation phase

November 28, 2020

First point of business – I’d like to invite you to a digital bitcoin webinar on Wednesday 9 December (1700 GMT, 1900 South Africa (GMT+2), 1100 Pacific Standard Time. This is for bitcoin investors. It is less suitable beginners who don’t have any holdings. Goals: Prepare for the bitcoin bull market; understand past cycles, strategize … More Bitcoin Bulletin: Shifting from accumulation towards aggressive appreciation phase

Chris Cole on derivatives, volatility, market structure and regime change

November 17, 2020

Really enjoyed this Grant Williams podcast with Chris Cole. In fact, all Grant’s interviews in this series are worth listening to (more than once). There’s a lot of info I didn’t fully understand in this interview. Options and derivatives aren’t my strong point, but the interaction between these variables, volatility, monetary policy, macro and market … More Chris Cole on derivatives, volatility, market structure and regime change

Sound Money Monthly: (ed.4) Where can we place our trust?

November 6, 2020

TLDR: The foundations of social trust are being tested. Our unsound monetary system with its negative consequences is a driver of this trust deficit. Communities that adopt sound money assets take a proactive step towards trustworthy relationships and away from the insidious consequences of unsound money. Youtube summary video: Trust – there’s simply not enough … More Sound Money Monthly: (ed.4) Where can we place our trust?

Bitcoin Bulletin: All aboard the train

October 27, 2020

Since the August 14 Bitcoin Bulletin “Accumulation Phase Intact”, bitcoin has gained by 10.6% from $11,770 to $13,019. The data I’m looking at suggests we’re firmly in the accumulation phase with limited signs of market froth. Retail and institutional interest looks contained, which indicates the corporate treasury decisions and potentially High Net Worth’s are moving … More Bitcoin Bulletin: All aboard the train