Category: analysis

Bitcoin Bulletin: Arbitrage opportunity on ZAR-USD bitcoin spread

August 27, 2020

This is a research piece on the bitcoin arbitrage opportunity between South African exchanges and global exchanges. It’s not relevant for non-South African readers. Concept Bitcoin (BTC) is purchased through BTCZAR markets in South Africa, which is different to BTCUSD markets globally. When converting the BTCZAR price into USD, we tend to see a spread … More Bitcoin Bulletin: Arbitrage opportunity on ZAR-USD bitcoin spread

Bitcoin Bulletin: accumulation phase intact

August 14, 2020

The recent gold all-time highs supports the store of value theme, which further increases my confidence for bitcoin’s price prospects over the coming quarters. Technical analysis suggests that the price rise above $10,000 is an important development for bitcoin, but the price remains well below all-time highs, which would be the final confirmation of the … More Bitcoin Bulletin: accumulation phase intact

A Conflict of Visions by Thomas Sowell

August 10, 2020

Another brilliant piece of work by the master, Thomas Sowell. Quite a theoretical book but an incredibly useful framework. I’ve observed numerous recent events through Sowell’s visions since I started reading the book. The ability for ideas to immediately infiltrate one’s framework and lexicon is a true hallmark of greatness. A vision is our natural … More A Conflict of Visions by Thomas Sowell

SM (ed. 1) Debt constrains our future

August 7, 2020

Have you ever wondered why economic conditions are challenging, despite easy access to credit for cars, homes and shopping? In this edition of the Sound Money Monthly we cover one the most important macroeconomic trends, debt. (16 minute read) TLDR: Economic growth, job quality and social mobility are declining. Yet the policy response is the cause … More SM (ed. 1) Debt constrains our future

Sound Money Monthly: (ed. 1) Debt constrains our future prospects

August 7, 2020

Have you ever wondered why economic conditions are challenging for the man on the street, despite easy access to credit for cars, homes and shopping? In this first edition of the Sound Money Monthly we cover the most important macroeconomic trend, debt. (16 minute read) TLDR: Economic opportunities for the masses and social mobility are declining, … More Sound Money Monthly: (ed. 1) Debt constrains our future prospects

Bitcoin Investment Analysis | Preparing for the coming bull-market

June 17, 2020

With 200%+ returns per annum since 2010, Bitcoin has generated one of the best investment returns in recent years, perhaps ever! It has also experienced massive volatility and huge drawdowns during the 4 bull and 3 bear markets since its creation in 2009. HODLers who average their purchase prices through time and don’t intend to … More Bitcoin Investment Analysis | Preparing for the coming bull-market

All Cycles Turn Eventually

May 11, 2020

An article for Alexander Forbes clients appeared in Money Web and the Citizen this week: https://www.moneyweb.co.za/news/markets/all-cycles-turn-eventually/ COVID-19 is the trigger, not cause, for global recession Volatility and risk repricing after years of complacency Long-term asset class return expectations improve Coast is not clear in short term Value in South African real interest rates Ripe conditions … More All Cycles Turn Eventually