Category: analysis

Velocity and the Dangers of Mathematical Economics

May 6, 2020

A wonderful exposition of Austrian Economics by Frank Shostak and the dangers of seemingly innocuous mathematical economics in this article: https://mises.org/wire/problem-velocity-money. I’ll re-hash so that I solidify this critical concept in my own head… This is unlikely to be valuable to those who haven’t studied formal economics. Mathematical economists manipulate; (1) Velocity (V) = Value … More Velocity and the Dangers of Mathematical Economics

Inflationary Intervention Triggers Depression Risks

April 28, 2020

Although painful, the solution to the 2020 economic recession is simple – uncover our problems, let prices adjust and reallocate capital towards productive usages. The quicker we adjust, the shorter the recession and the sooner we create a sustainable economic foundation for future prosperity. This approach is the polar opposite to the current interventionist and … More Inflationary Intervention Triggers Depression Risks

Navigating murky eurodollar and USD strengthening risks

April 21, 2020

This is a technical financial market article, French for lay-people. There is a tension between long-term and short-term forces on the world’s global reserve currency, the US dollar. The outcome is incredibly important for the global economy, asset class performance and investment outcomes across the globe because the USD is the funding currency for international … More Navigating murky eurodollar and USD strengthening risks

“History never repeats but it rhymes” – 4th Turning Crisis Preparation

April 5, 2020

The 4th Turning by Strauss and Howe is the best book I’ve read in recent time. Using a combination of demographics, economics and sociology, the authors analyse American history through generations. Rather than the orthodox approach, looking at history through the eye of the leaders, they pinpoint the influence of key events on each generation. … More “History never repeats but it rhymes” – 4th Turning Crisis Preparation

Short-termism is the more dangerous pandemic

March 31, 2020

Covid19 is a trigger that will push a fragile global economy into recession, not the cause. The pending economic conditions are the consequence of poor economic policy and an inability to take difficult decisions, not the virus. Policymakers have favoured short-term patch-work solutions over long-term term sustainable solutions. “Short-termism”, as I like to call it, … More Short-termism is the more dangerous pandemic

Corporatism, Bailouts and Moral Hazard

March 30, 2020

There is a critical component of the socioeconomic narrative that risks slipping under the radar of the panic induced coronavirus. It’s very NB to engage on these subjects because I think we’re entering into a period where social and regulatory structures globally are ripe for change. It’s important for businesses and individuals to be aware … More Corporatism, Bailouts and Moral Hazard

Policy impatience and perpetual business cycle autumn

December 18, 2019

This is the transcript of a talk I gave at Sakelige in Pretoria on Business Cycles and Capital Structure in October 2019. Video recording here. Good afternoon. Great to be here with you, a group of real risk-takers who are advancing society one risk at a time. Honour to share the stage with a mentor of … More Policy impatience and perpetual business cycle autumn

Brexit: An opportunity but not a guarantee for constructive change

June 23, 2016

I know this is little last minute but told a friend that I’d send him some analysis on the Brexit, which combined with my determination to kick-start blogging again, has led to this post. Enjoy!   Brexit: The opportunity but not a guarantee to make constructive change   On Thursday 23 June the United Kingdom … More Brexit: An opportunity but not a guarantee for constructive change