Subsequent my March 2020 post “Protect Capital: The Case for Gold” the yellow metal has rallied 20% to all-time highs of $1975/ounce. Record highs incorrectly suggest to some that gold is expensive and that the rally is long in the tooth, but evidence refutes this inclination. Volatility and drawdowns should be expected, but current gold … More Gold thesis intact after ATHs
With 200%+ returns per annum since 2010, Bitcoin has generated one of the best investment returns in recent years, perhaps ever! It has also experienced massive volatility and huge drawdowns during the 4 bull and 3 bear markets since its creation in 2009. HODLers who average their purchase prices through time and don’t intend to … More Bitcoin Investment Analysis | Preparing for the coming bull-market
An article for Alexander Forbes clients appeared in Money Web and the Citizen this week: https://www.moneyweb.co.za/news/markets/all-cycles-turn-eventually/ COVID-19 is the trigger, not cause, for global recession Volatility and risk repricing after years of complacency Long-term asset class return expectations improve Coast is not clear in short term Value in South African real interest rates Ripe conditions … More All Cycles Turn Eventually
This is a technical financial market article, French for lay-people. There is a tension between long-term and short-term forces on the world’s global reserve currency, the US dollar. The outcome is incredibly important for the global economy, asset class performance and investment outcomes across the globe because the USD is the funding currency for international … More Navigating murky eurodollar and USD strengthening risks
The 4th Turning by Strauss and Howe is the best book I’ve read in recent time. Using a combination of demographics, economics and sociology, the authors analyse American history through generations. Rather than the orthodox approach, looking at history through the eye of the leaders, they pinpoint the influence of key events on each generation. … More “History never repeats but it rhymes” – 4th Turning Crisis Preparation
Covid19 is a trigger that will push a fragile global economy into recession, not the cause. The pending economic conditions are the consequence of poor economic policy and an inability to take difficult decisions, not the virus. Policymakers have favoured short-term patch-work solutions over long-term term sustainable solutions. “Short-termism”, as I like to call it, … More Short-termism is the more dangerous pandemic
I love bitcoin and believe that everyone should understand the reasons for growing interest in the revolutionary technology, if not own a piece of the ledger. I’m always looking for analogies to share the concepts with friends and family. When thinking about investing in bitcoin, I like to use venture capital as an example of … More Bitcoin is Venture Capital
I wrote in 2019 that “central banks have eroded store of value characteristics from traditional financial markets. First cash, then bonds, leaving investors to use property and equity as quasi store of value instruments. Negative interest rates raise the attractiveness of the age-old store of value, gold, and the store of value for the digital … More Protect Capital; the Case for Gold
Not the best book I’ve ever read. Not terrible either. Mauboussin is an experienced and creative thinking investor with a number of great insights – I’ve listed a few below. I just didn’t really get into the book and it took a while to read so there wasn’t much enjoyment. Investing is more about temperament … More More Than you Know: Michael Mauboussin
I plan to share a few bitcoin valuation and sentiment indicators with readers in the future. Before we get there, I’d like to create an appreciation of the reason stores of value like bitcoin are particularly valuable in global financial markets in 2019. This should lay the groundwork for interpreting future research. Summary: Central banks have … More Where can we store our Value?
Sound Money 