2020 has been an unbelievable year. Apart from cementing the importance of relationships and community, bitcoin is the most positive component of a challenging year. 300%+ investment returns are spectacular, but bitcoin is far more important than price appreciation. In this note, I touch on numerous positive aspects of bitcoin, including protecting value in the … More 2021 bitcoin outlook: Hold onto your hats!
I’ve followed Jawad on twitter for years but engaged with his material infrequently until 2020. What can I say, there’s a lot of content on twitter and my attention was drawn elsewhere in the past… Through 2020 I’ve been acutely drawn to this work and I loved reading Stray Reflections. It’s not really a personal … More Stray Reflections by Jawad Mian
Bitcoin’s detractors often refer to it as a speculative asset. This is partially true – an investment in bitcoin involves a speculation on an inherently uncertain future. But the connotation implied by ‘speculation’ is often unhelpful because it associates bitcoin with fly-by-nights who are merely trying to make a quick buck. In this article I … More Embracing Speculation: High-probability potential in a speculative world
Bitcoin is in the process of monetisation whereby people adopt a digital, decentralised, global, censorship resistant store of value. Historically adoption cycles have centred on the halving, with an accumulation phase pre-halving, a parabolic phase post-halving and a bear-market thereafter (I wrote about this here). Preston Pysh and Stephan Livera explored the possibility that bitcoin … More Learning Bitcoin’s Golden Language – Adoption cycles will persist post 2021
First point of business – I’d like to invite you to a digital bitcoin webinar on Wednesday 9 December (1700 GMT, 1900 South Africa (GMT+2), 1100 Pacific Standard Time. This is for bitcoin investors. It is less suitable beginners who don’t have any holdings. Goals: Prepare for the bitcoin bull market; understand past cycles, strategize … More Bitcoin Bulletin: Shifting from accumulation towards aggressive appreciation phase
Really enjoyed this Grant Williams podcast with Chris Cole. In fact, all Grant’s interviews in this series are worth listening to (more than once). There’s a lot of info I didn’t fully understand in this interview. Options and derivatives aren’t my strong point, but the interaction between these variables, volatility, monetary policy, macro and market … More Chris Cole on derivatives, volatility, market structure and regime change
In part 1 I described the major differences between bitcoin and Ethereum and in part 2 I spoken about the protocol uncertainty in ethereum’s future vs. bitcoin’s ossifying protocol. In part 3 I return to my investment thesis, which is the reason I remain predominantly bitcoin focused. Primary investment thesis (5-10 years) Store of Value … More BTC vs. ETH PART 3: Investment Thesis
The Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) is a favoured avenue for institutional investors to gain access to bitcoin due to the ease of execution via traditional investment accounts. In this article I highlight a few of the advantages and disadvantages of the trust. The premium between the GBTC price and the actual undervaluing value of the … More Grayscale, Institutional BTC access and premium
Excellent book where Marko Papic outlines his geopolitical investment framework. An educational and enjoyable read with plenty of examples. Three elements that really struck me; nihilism, constraints and the multipolar vision. Nietzschean Nihilism Marko is a powerfully nihilistic analyst. It makes his research incisive, differentiated, entertaining and valuable. Something to strive towards as an analyst. … More Book Review: The Nihilism, Constraints and Multipolar vision for Geopolitical Alpha
Bitcoin has developed a strong correlation with “risk assets” in 2020. A stronger correlation between bitcoin and global equity markets is an understandable concern for those who consider bitcoin an independent store of value. In this article, I dispel these risk-asset fears. TLDR: the drivers of equity and stores of value can temporarily overlap, but … More Dispelling bitcoin risk-asset fears
Sound Money 